Do not call it acounter-offensive,” say the Ukrainians.” This is our descent, it’s our chance to eventually drive out the Russian army from our land.”
Alright, but what will it take to actually succeed?
First out, let’s not get detracted by the recent hard- fought but bitsy territorial earnings Ukraine has been making as it retakes obscure, partial- abandoned townlets in the eastern Donetsk and south- eastern Zaporizhzhia regions.
After months of stalemate, images of victorious, battle- stained Ukrainian dogfaces holding up their country’s blue and unheroic flag in front of a pellet- ridden structure is a welcome morale boost for Ukrainians.
But in the big strategic picture, this is a sideshow.
The area of Russian- held home that matters most in this crusade is the south the area between the megacity of Zaporizhzhia and the ocean of Azov.
This is the so- called” land corridor” that connects Russia to immorally adjoined Crimea, the central part of that purple- shadowed strip on the chart below that has slightly changed since the early weeks of the irruption last time.
still, also its descent will have largely been successful, If Ukraine can resolve that in two and hold the ground it’s reacquired.
It would cut off Russia’s colors in the west and make it hard to resupply their garrison in Crimea.
It would not inescapably spell an end to the war which some are now prognosticating could drag on for times but it would put Ukraine in a strong logrolling position when the ineluctable peace addresses eventually take place.
But the Russians have looked at the chart, relatively some time agone , and reached the same conclusion.
So while Ukraine transferred its dogfaces off to Nato countries for training and readied their 12 armoured armies for this summer crusade, Moscow spent that time constructing what’s now being called” the most redoubtable protective bastions in the world”.
Blocking Ukraine’s path to the seacoast- its own seacoast, let’s not forget- are subcaste upon subcaste of Russian minefields, concrete tank- blockers( known as” dragons’ teeth”) cellarages, firing positions and fosses wide enough and deep enough to stop a Leopard 2 or M1 Abrams tank literally in its tracks.
All of this is covered bypre-determined ordnance impact zones calibrated to rain down high net on Ukraine’s armoured vehicles as they and their crews stay for their masterminds to find a way through.
The early signs are and it’s still veritably beforehand in this crusade- that those Russian defences are so far holding presto.
Ukraine has yet to commit the bulk of its forces so these are probing, surveillance attacks designed to reveal the whereabouts of Russia’s ordnance and search out areas of vulnerability in their lines.
In Ukraine’s favour is morale. Its dogfaces are largely- motivated and fighting to liberate their own country from an raider.
utmost of Russia’s colors don’t partake that provocation, and in numerous cases their training, outfit and leadership are inferior to Ukraine’s.
The General Staff back in Kyiv will be hoping that if they can achieve a sufficient advance also a collapse in Russian morale will be contagious, spreading across the base as demoralised Russian colors lose the will to fight.
Also in Ukraine’s favour is the quality of tackle that Nato countries have handed. Unlike Soviet- designed armoured vehicles, Nato’s tanks and army fighting vehicles can frequently repel a direct megahit, or at least enough to cover the crew inside who also live to fight on.
But will that be enough to fight the strength of Russia’s ordnance and drone attacks?
Russia, as the extensively bigger country, can draw on further coffers than Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin, who started this war in the first place, knows that if he can only wear down the Ukrainians into a stalemate that drags on into coming time also there’s a chance that the US and other abettors will tire of supporting this precious war trouble and start to press Kyiv to reach a ceasefire concession.
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Eventually, there’s the matter of air cover, or lack of it. Attacking a well dug- in adversary without sufficient close air support is largely parlous.
Ukraine knows this, which is why it’s long been contending with the West to supply it with F16 fighter spurts.
The US, which makes them, didn’t give the green light for this until late May, by which time the first, introductory, phase of Ukraine’s descent was formerly under way.
Critically for Ukraine, the game- changing F16s may now arrive too late on the battleground to play a crucial part in the early phases of thiscounter-offensive.
This isn’t to say the Ukrainians will lose.
Time and again they’ve proved themselves nimble, resourceful and inventive. They successfully drove the Russian army out of Kherson by hitting their hinder- area logistics capitals to the point where the Russians could no longer resupply their colors in that southern megacity.
Equipped with long- range munitions like Britain’s Storm Shadow voyage bullet, Ukraine will be trying to do the same now.
But amidst all the claim and cross-claim of a propaganda war, it may yet be weeks or indeed months before we get a clearer picture of who’s likely to eventually prevail in this war.
